Pronto*

Bolivia inches closer to approving new constitution

2008-10-09T13:26:10Z

The Bolivian political crisis is back to a respectable simmer. Even though the dialogue between government & opposition broke down several days ago, both sides agreed to throw the issue back into the legislature (where it should’ve been dealt w/ anyhow). MAS agreed to call back its protesters, allowing the legislature to deliberate in relative peace. legislators have agreed to open up the draft constitution (CPE) for minor modifications (mostly to fix contradictions found w/in the current text). The hope is that the legislature will approve a final text, as well as set a date for a public referendum on the new constitution. No one doubts that a new constitution will be approved. The real issue is what happens after the approval of the new CPE. In addition to a significant overhaul of state-society & state-economy relations, the new CPE introduces a radically decentralized (or even “devolved”) political system. It also introduces important changes to executive-legislative relations. In short, it changes the rules of the game. Theoretically, the current legislature must pass a new (provisional) electoral law w/in 60 days of voters approving the new CPE. 120 days after that, new elections must be called nationwide for all current & newly created elected offices. That means: president, vice president, legislators (in a new unicameral body), prefects, departmental councils, mayors & municipal council members, subprefects (provincial executives), and indigenous authorities. But these elections will be conducted on a purely “transitional” electoral system. The new unicameral “Plurinational Assembly” would have 180 days to approve a number of laws regulating the new decentralized political system, as well as a new Electoral Code. Then, w/in 120 days, the country would hold elections for the “Plurinational Electoral Council” (which would replace the current National Electoral Court) & members to the Constitutional Tribunal (a special body w/ the powers to interpret the constitutionality of laws). In addition, the new CPE introduces (like in the Venezuelan & Ecuadorian cases) a new form of “Social Control” which represents the people’s power as a “fourth branch” of government. So for those of you who thought Bolivia’s round of elections in 2008 was a record. You ain’t seen nothing yet! ]]>

Spread prediction: Obama wins 303-235

2008-10-07T22:19:34Z

It’s the day of the second presidential debate, and already the momentum has shifted back to Obama. Electoral Votes website. It currently has it scored 349-174-15 in Obama’s favor. This day four years ago, it was 264-243-17 in Bush’s favor. If you click around the site, you can see the data in a number of ways. Meanwhile, over at techPresident, Obama still has a commanding lead over McCain in Facebook supporters at 1,994,302 to 555,194. I know there’s still a month to go. And I’m sure every vote is important. But I’m going out on a limb & officially call it for Obama. I’m also going to give a respectable point spread of 303 to 235. So Obama can loose in Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada (all currently leaning Democratic), w/ McCain picking up North Carolina (currently tied), and still come out comfortably on top. To give you a sense of how innevitable this is, McCain currently must pick up North Carolina, all “barely Democratic” states (Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada), plus Pennsylvania and any of the following (Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin). If he loses Pennsylvania, then he must win both Michigan & Wisconsin (regardless of what happens in Maine). Perhaps now it’s time to start paying attention to the down-ticket races.]]>

The Big Mac peace theory

2008-10-07T17:43:21Z

This Friday my research methods class hands in a brief (1½-2 page) assignment based on Thomas Friedman’s 1996 column, “Foreign Affairs Big Mac I.” Based on Friedman’s whimsical observation, they’re expected to develop a testable hypothesis & sketch out (in very broad strokes) a research design to investigate the cause of his observation that “no two countries that both have a McDonald’s have ever fought a war against each other.” Of course, the controversial assertion was been put to rest by the Russia-Georgia war of 2008. Still, I’m curious to see what my students come up w/.

Javi's fall trip

2008-10-07T16:11:34Z

We took a weekend Fall trip up to Dickinson, to visit friends. It was a great change of pace & a much needed break from our typical routine (we barely touched the internet and/or work-related reading). Javi entertained everyone w/ his new skills. And he seemed to enjoy his trip to the apple orchard & pumpkin patch. We left directly from The Mount (K8 & Javi drove up w/ me at 6:30 am!) after my classes. We got back Sunday afternoon. Here are some pictures taken throughout the weekend (we seem to regularly forget to pull out our cameras, amidst all the excitement). ]]> The Market Cross, a trip through a corn maze (the “’mazing maize maze!”) at the Paulus farm & orchard, and rousing games of Alhambra & Ticket to Ride. Thanks to everyone for a great weekend (and especially to John & Kristine for putting us up in their beautiful home). Oh, and Javi went to his regular 9-month doctor’s check up on Monday while I was at work. At 22 lbs and 30½ inches he’s now officially too big for his “infant” car seat (he’s the size of the average 18-month-old!). Wow.

Javi walking (almost)

2008-10-06T13:13:55Z

We just got back from a visit w/ friends in Pennsylvania (it was great, more later). While doing laundry, we discovered that Javi learned a new trick.

Unless they give you $2,300, vote them out

2008-10-02T21:34:42Z

So the Senate passed a (oh so slightly) modified bailout package 74-25-1. Both of my (Maryland) senators voted for it. Unfortunately, neither is up for reelection this year. Now it’s up to the House. If my representative (John Sarbanes) votes for it, I will vote for his Republican challenger in November (and I don’t currently even know his/her name). Why? Because I want my $2,300! (my estimated share of the $700 billion). ]]> very safe Democrat state, so it doesn’t even really matter). Want to see how your senator voted for the bailout? You can access that information from the US Senate webpage, here: Vote on H.R. 1424. You can also check on House votes here: Legislation & Votes. The earlier House version of the bailout plan (H.R. 3997) was voted down 205-228-1. Too bad for Sarbanes. He voted “Aye” the first time around, so he’s likely to do so again tomorrow. Boo! Why? ? Because I want my $2,300!

The opposition's criticisms of Bolivia's draft CPE

2008-10-02T13:52:08Z

A number of observers have wondered what were the specific criticisms of the new draft constitution (CPE) put forward by the opposition. Yesterda’s El Deber published a brief outline of the opposition’s seven criticisms (and the relevant articles of the draft CPE). I’m simply giving rough paraphrased translations below:]]> Theme 1: Democratic Institutionalization The proposed CPE eliminates the concept of republic, because it denies Bolivian nation by subdividing the population into various “nations” w/ different rights (Art. 1, 2, 3, and 5). It creates second class citizens, granting special representation to some citizens (Art. 149). It excludes representation of minorities in the legislature. (Art. 147). It eliminates the separation of powers between branches of government (Art. 242 & 243). Bolivia’s constitutional tradition has rejected immediate presidential reelection to avoid presidents “politicizing” their office (Art. 169). Theme 2: Equality The proposed CPE grants different rights to different citizens (Art. 30.4, 30.14, 30.17, 149.1, 200, 2006, and 235). Theme 3: Justice The proposed CPE distorts communitarian justice by allow its application beyond traditional uses & customs, and violates the rights of citizens who aren’t members of those communities by recognizing territorial community rights over individual human rights (Art. 180, 191, 192, and 193). It “politicizes” justice by allowing elections for judges (Art. 183, 184, and 195). It alters the nature of the constitution by specifying the crime of “treason to the fatherland” (patria), turning the constitution into a penal code. Theme: Autonomy 4 The proposed CPE doesn’t give departments the right to dictate departmental laws (Art. 229, 277, 278, 279, 281, 284, 290, 292, and 410). Theme 5: Economy The proposed CPE restricts private property (Art. 316), negates access to basic services (Art. 20), and introduces disincentives to economic production (Art. 314). Theme 6: Agriculture The proposed CPE doesn’t encourage (commercial) agriculture because it legalizes the confiscation of property based on government whims (Art. 398 & 400). Theme 7: Constitutional Stability The proposed CPE allows for simple majorities (rather than super majorities) to change the constitution (Art. 411). ----- Of course, depending on one’s ideological convictions, some criticisms may hold less weight than others. For example, the election of judges may not be a major obstacle (many local judges in the US are elected). Others, such as the adoption to two parallel legal systems (“communitarian” & “ordinary”) are more difficult to reconcile. But at least this provides a sense of what the “Media Luna” critics believe is wrong w/ the proposed constitution, in concrete terms.

Bolivian comedy troupe in Florida

2008-10-02T13:06:01Z

If you’re in the Florida area & want to see some a live Bolivian sketch comedy show (think Saturday Night Live), check out the Chaplin Show in Miami (Saturday, October 4) & Naples (Sunday October 5). You can also check out their official website, though it has no video clips.

Baltimore Comicon reading suggestions

2008-09-30T15:30:33Z

Last Saturday, Javi & I went to the Baltimore Comicon. We hoped on Light Rail & rode down to Inner Harbor. It wasn’t nearly as large as I had imagined, but it was still a lot of fun. And Javi was a good sport. ]]> David Mack, one of my favorite artists. He’s one of those artists who pushes “comic books” far beyond their common stereotype. If you ever get a chance to pick up some of his work, do so. It’s a lot of mixed-media experimental design. And many of his stories are told w/ little (if any) linear text. Rather than move your eye from panel to panel, you’re forced to absorb the whole page. If you want to see what Mack can do in a relatively “familiar” form, pick up Daredevil: Echo. Echo is a deaf-mute Native American character who understands the world visually. You’ll see what I mean by how Mack elevates his work well beyond “mere comics” to high visual art. But Mack is also a children’s book author! And I got him to sign Javi’s edition of The Shy Creatures (which first appeared as a story-w/in-a-story in an issue of Kabuki). It has a sort of Dr. Zeuss vibe, but w/ a contemporary twist. We also met Andy Runton, who signed & sketched a dedication to Javi in Owly: A Time to Be Brave. The Owly books are great for little kids who don’t know how to read. The stories are entirely visual, w/ almost no text at all. While we waited for Runton, a very excited 4-year-old chatted away w/ Runton about her favorite Owly characters; he signed all four of her books, sketching in each of them. If you have a pre-schooler, I highly recommend these books. I’m sure Javi will enjoy them in about two years. Finally, we also got to meet Darwyn Cooke, though we had to stand in line for a bit. Javi was a trooper, but soon after I knew that we had to head back home. Cooke signed two of my books, which was about all the time he had. If you’re interested in very beautiful “retro” comics that give a modern design aesthetic to Golden & Silver age comics, check his stuff out. He has a particularly good knack for color & composition. Two of my favorite stand-alone works of his are the 2-volume DC: The New Frontier (there’s also a DVD) & Selina’s Big Score (a Catwoman caper that’s not about Catwoman, but Selina Kyle). In particular, The New Frontier is not only a story of the transition from Golden Age (1940s) to Silver Age (1960s) superheroes, but it’s also a subtle but poignant critique of the early Cold War period (particularly racism & McCarthyism). Anyhow, it was overall a great experience. I’ll post some pictures of Javi w/ some costumed participants later. Maybe when he’s a little older, we’ll do it again.

Javi's favorite food: Cheese!

2008-09-30T15:00:20Z

JICA tops USAID

2008-09-30T13:26:42Z

In my American Foreign Policy class, I’ve been trying to impress on the students the impermanent (and historically recent) nature of US global hegemony. That’s why rather than starting the course w/ the postwar period (when the US emerged as a superpower), we started w/ the 1898 Spanish American War (arguably when the US emerged as one of the “great powers”). That starting point allows me to challenge the conventional wisdom many undergraduates have about the US & its role in world affairs. Today’s Washington Post story about Sadato Ogata & the Japan International Cooperation Agency is particularly appropriate. As of today, JICA is the world’s largest bilateral aid organization. After acquiring a government bank, it is now 2½ larger that USAID. ]]> the largest source of development aid to the third world. In absolute numbers, that’s usually the case. But not, of course, in terms of percent of GNI (at about 0.16% we lag behind Norway at 0.95% … and well behind Saudi Arabia’s estimated 4%). Today’s news suggests that Japan may soon replace the US as the top donor (in terms of absolute numbers).

Where's my $2,300!?

2008-09-29T21:23:40Z

The proposed bailout plan failed today. Good! Wall Street got angry about that, and stocks took a tumble. Not good, but I still don’t care. I have only one question for Washington: Where’s my $2,300!? I also find it amusing that left wing Democrats & right wing Republicans were able to find common ground. And no amount of arm wrangling by the White House is going to do the trick, I don’t think. Join my Facebook petition and ask: Where’s my $2,300!?

Ecuador approves new constitution

2008-09-29T15:39:16Z

approved a new constitution (by almost two thirds), according to preliminary vote counts. This gives Correa an important victory. ]]> This contrasts w/ Chavez, who saw Venezuelan voters reject his proposed constitution. Or Evo, who has struggled against a staunch opposition to his constitution. Unlike in Bolivia, the opposition seems (so far) to have accepted the defeat w/o major problems. Also unlike Bolivia, of course, the constitutional assembly did manage to work on a document in a more transparent manner. All in all, Correa seems to be doing something Evo has been unable to do: Walk a fine tight rope between progressive reforms aimed at rectifying long-standing socioeconomic inequalities, while also keeping polarization in check & retaining good relations w/ the US & the rest of the international financial community. Perhaps in ten (or even five) years time, we’ll see which approach was more fruitful.

Ecuador's constitutional referendum

2008-09-28T14:31:32Z

referendum on a new constitution today. The measure includes a number of “radical” social, economic, and political measures: a stronger role for the government over strategic industries (oil, telecoms), writing off some (but not all) international debts, an attack on large landholdings & land redistribution measures, allowing the president to have two consecutive terms (but not “indefinite” reelection), health care for senior citizens, and recognition of same-sex civil marriages. ]]> Many paint the draft constitution as similar to those in Venezuela & Bolivia. Both critics & supporters describe it in line w/ Chávez’s “Bolivarian” revolution. Apparently, all politics today is defined through the prism of pro- or anti-Chávez. But Ecuador’s constituent assembly had few of the problems that plagued Bolivia’s. Its president, Rafael Correa, though often lumped together w/ Chávez & Evo, is more pragmatic. Unlike Chávez or Evo, Correa is a US-educated economist (w/ a PhD in economics from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign). At some key moments, he has broken from his lockstep w/ Chávez. After Colombian military forces struck a FARC base in Ecuadorian territory, he reacted less forcefully than Chávez (and he has since continued anti-FARC cooperation w/ Colombia). At a recent Andean Community meeting, Ecuador backed the free trade deal w/ the US supported by Peru & Colombia, leaving Bolivia as the only dissenter. And in the recent crisis in Bolivia, Ecuador joined UNASUR in calling for calm, but didn’t join Chávez in attacking the US or issuing similar rhetoric. The draft constitution will probably be approved by voters. But historical regional divisions may play an important role. The country has long been defined by a rivalry between lowland Guayaquil (the largest city) & highland Quito (the national capital). Here, we do have a similarity to Bolivia. It’s possible that Ecuador could approve the constitution (even by large margins), but that Guayaquil could vote against it (also by large margins). If so, the country could enter a dangerous impasse. That may not happen, of course. At the same time, Correa’s anti-poverty populism is nevertheless tempered by the kind of pragmatism critical to help resolve the issue.

Bolivia negotiations break down

2008-09-28T14:06:59Z

Evo announced that he’ll approve the draft constitution, peacefully or not (“De buenas o de malas”). The statement was made at a MAS gathering in Cochabamba; he also announced a march on La Paz to force the National Congress to pass a bill for a referendum on the draft constitution. ]]> For some brief historical background: The constituent assembly met in Sucre for about a year, spinning its wheels. MAS did not control the supermajority needed to approve language. In November 2007, MAS supporters surrounded the constituent assembly, which had retreated to a military installation after government & opposition delegates had come to blows. W/o any opposition delegates in attendance, and while opposition protesters & MAS supporters clashed outside (leaving several dead & injured), the delegates present tried to approve a draft text. They then moved to Oruro (again w/o opposition delegates) and w/in 24 hours approved a full text. Though approved in a marathon session, the text was later edited in special committee because of a number of errors & contradictions found in the text. Roughly a week later, a copy of the draft was released to the public. If there is a referendum on the new constitution, that is the text that would be voted on. As of yesterday, the government was still willing to negotiate on the issue of autonomy. But it’s hard to understand how that issue can be resolved if the pertinent sections of the draft constitution aren’t open to revision.