tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1 2009-06-27T14:49:12Z a blog about life, politics, and more (since 2002) Movable Type 3.33 tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.525 2009-06-27T14:43:44Z 2009-06-27T14:49:12Z

I’ve spent the better part of a week on my research in Bolivia. One of the odd things about this, of course, is that in a whirlwind trip I have...

I’ve spent the better part of a week on my research in Bolivia. One of the odd things about this, of course, is that in a whirlwind trip I have limited time to pay attention to “current event” news in detail. Sure, there’s the kind of soaking & poking that happens (including reading interesting graffiti everywhere), but that never really makes up for careful, thorough analysis of facts (as opposed to knee-jerk reactions based on ideological prejudices). But balancing time between spending hours tucked away in the Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional & entertaining w/ Javi (my 18-month-old) limits that kind of thorough “on the scene” analysis. Still, there were a few interesting moments. tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.524 2009-06-24T13:47:50Z 2009-06-24T14:02:45Z

We arrived in La Paz Monday afternoon, a bit tired after a long bus trip from Cochabamba, and feeling the effects of altitude (Javi, not so much). We´re settled into...

We arrived in La Paz Monday afternoon, a bit tired after a long bus trip from Cochabamba, and feeling the effects of altitude (Javi, not so much). We´re settled into our cozy little habitación in Casa Hermanos Manchego (though sans the promised wifi). There are changes in La Paz, but so far the city seems oddly "depoliticized" compared to previous visits, despite the frequent tv/radio government (and some opposition) spots. I´ll try to comment on some of the news later. I met my research assistant. I think our project will move forward smoothly enough, assuming we can actually find the information we need. The National Electoral Court (CNE) doen´t have detailed records going beyond the 1997 election (it might have the 1993 election information I need). Since the project seeks to compare candidate recruitment from the 1985-1993 to 1997-2005 period, having pre-1997 data is critical. Sadly, I may have to do archive work to find the names of candidates (who didn´t win seats) in pre-1997 elections and present it to the CNE as a colaboración to augment their own records. After that, we have about 14 months to try to track down demographic information on the candidates. So far our database contains about 2,700 candidate entries (this includes about 1,500 for a complete list of 1997 candidates already entered); the total number should ammount to an estimated 6,000-7,000 (though many of these will be duplicates; that is, the same person running in multiple years). Today I have to present my letters of request for information to the CNE, as well as the Bolivian National Library of Congress. If nothing else, they may have old newspapers that printed the names of candidates for the 1985, 1989, 1993 elections. I can then copy them down & transfer them to the spreadsheet. This afternoon I go to ILDIS to meet Carlos Toranzo, catch up, and seek his guidance on how to continue w/ the project (as well as some coding questions). These are the kinds of things I do when I "work" in Bolivia. Otherwise, we´re enjoying seeing La Paz through new eyes. Javi changes the dynamics, of course. We have to walk more slowly, we have to choose our routes & itinerary w/ his attention span in mind, and we have to figure out where to eat lunch (so far it looks like La Terraza in Sopocachi, w/ its play area & high chairs w/ gadgets, is a hit). His love of cars means he is having a blast riding in taxis (w/o a safety seat!) or just plain walking the streets looking at all the different kinds of cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. He also loves feeding, then chasing, the pidgeons in Plaza Murillo. Oh, and he played w/ his first sparklers (for San Juan, of course)! Today, we´re taking hin to the Sagarnaga. Not much else is new. We´ll try to post some pictures (mostly of Javi, of course) once we have time. But it´s not too cold for him, in case you were worried. tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.523 2009-06-19T19:16:48Z 2009-06-19T19:17:59Z

K8 posted some photos to her Facebook account, but I’ll wait to post photos until I’m in La Paz & have a bit more time. But Javi is having a...

K8 posted some photos to her Facebook account, but I’ll wait to post photos until I’m in La Paz & have a bit more time. But Javi is having a grand time in Santa Cruz. The weather is cooperating nicely (not too hot, not too humid), even though many of the local attractions are closed for “winter” (it can get as low as the mid-70s here!). despite it’s national & local leaders.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.522 2009-06-16T20:23:49Z 2009-06-16T21:01:55Z

Our first few days in Santa Cruz are mostly devoted to catching up w/ my parents & relatives, so I’ve not had a chance to really scour the Bolivian news....

Our first few days in Santa Cruz are mostly devoted to catching up w/ my parents & relatives, so I’ve not had a chance to really scour the Bolivian news. There will be much more of that when we get to La Paz, obviously. But the two main stories that seem to dominate everyone’s attention are swine flu (N1H1, here called A1H1) & deteriorating Bolivia-Peru relations. Peru withdrew its ambassador from Bolivia in protest. For his part, Evo’s mostly attacking Alan Garcia personally & blaming Peru’s government of deliberately orchestrating a massacre of indigenous people (34 peopled died in clashes about two weeks ago, including 24 Peruvian security personnel). But there seems to be no effort to deny Evo’s ideological affinity for the Peruvian indigenous movement—and several recent public statements on their behalf confirm that he is at least a verbal “supporter” of their cause. None of this is illegal, of course. National leaders have the liberty to speak their minds about events in other countries; they also have the right to associate w/ opposition figures (at least, they do if we believe in liberal-pluralist democracy). But it’s ironic that Bolivia’s government is being accused of acting in Peru in the same way that it accuses other countries (particularly the US) of meddling in its own affairs (several editorialists are relishing that ironic twist). Such intervention is also, of course, taboo w/in the region. Most states have a reputation of backing sitting governments (the whole sovereignty thing), even at times when it may not be popular to do so (most countries publicly supported Goni in 2003, just as they did Chávez in 2002). But the entire episode is complicating bilateral Bolivia-Peru relations. The most recent attacks by Evo linking the violence in Peru to the US-Peru free trade agreement (though a good argument can be made for some sort of relation, of course, as AS/COA suggested earlier) highlight this. There’s now also a (minor) tiff w/ Paraguay, over a recent speech by Evo. My personal instinct is that this is very good for Evo’s reelection. Evo may be souring some of his relations abroad. But citizens of Peru & Paraguay don’t vote. And it’s easy to prey on longstanding anti-Peruvian xenophobia (a classic explanation for crime is “hay mucho peruano” [“there’s too many Peruians”]). It may not be good IR, but that’s good electoral politics. After four years in office & more than six years since October 2003, Evo is reminding voters of “Black October” all over again. What better way to mobilize the base? I’m curious to see if/when a real opposition figure emerges. So far the only viable candidate officially in the race is Potosí’s mayor, Rene Joaquino. He’s popular—in Potosí (where he’s been reelected multiple times). But he failed to win the department’s prefecture w/ his own party (AS, Alianza Social) in 2005; his party also didn’t do well in the 2006 constituent assembly election. I doubt he’ll captivate the nation’s vote in 2009. So far the election is Evo’s to lose. He’s keeping his name in the news, controversially or not. And, as someone famously quipped: There’s no such thing as bad publicity.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.521 2009-06-15T21:28:55Z 2009-06-15T21:56:07Z

We finally arrived in Bolivia after a long journey that started in Chicago on Saturday afternoon & ended in Santa Cruz on Sunday night (w/ a midnight to 7pm layover...

We finally arrived in Bolivia after a long journey that started in Chicago on Saturday afternoon & ended in Santa Cruz on Sunday night (w/ a midnight to 7pm layover in Miami). Both flights were fine. And Bolivian immigration was actually rather easy (though it seemed hard at the end of a 30 hour trip). But once again American Airlines showed itself to lack any understanding of the words “customer service.” not on the Bolivian consulate list, but she insisted. She also told us we needed to “find a CVS or something” & “get some pictures taken.” Why an airline that does international travel can’t have a photobooth (or even why an international airport can’t have one) is beyond me. Her suggestion (I kid you not) was that K8 take Javi (all of 17 months old), get in a cab, while I wait w/ the luggage. About 30 minutes later, K8 & Javi returned w/ the photos. We walked back to the customer agent, and waited patiently for her to help assisting the person in front of her. As soon as she finished w/ that person, w/o telling us anything (though she clearly saw us; we’d been standing there for at least 5 mins), she just walked away. No explanation. Just walked away. We turned to the agend next to her, and she started to walk away, too. When we insisted, we were told that their shift had ended. That was it. We then raced to another agent. Our intrepid agent had not saved any of her work (why should she, right?) & we had to start all over showing documents (w/ the same level of incompetence from the agent). And, I kid you not, at least 3x he asked which one of us was “Katherine” (32 yr old female), which one was “Miguel” (35 yr old male), and which one was “Javier” (17 month old male). I’m not sure about you, but I think anyone w/ half a brain could identify which of us was which based on recent passport photos. After another 25 minutes, we were finally given our boarding passes. In total, it took us less time to get through Bolivian customs. And that was only because we had to fill out a form that AA was supposed to give us on the plane, but didn’t. They never asked for the 4x4 photo, our yellow fever certificates, our birth certificates, or our marriage license. In fact, the Bolivian customs agents were nothing but friendly, courteous, and even showed initiative to keep Javi distracted & happy while we did paperwork. Why can’t they man the American ticket counters in Miami? I’m glad to be back in Bolivia, eager to see some friends/family, and ready to start my research when I get to La Paz. But I am absolutely dreading having to deal w/ American Airlines again. Next time I’d rather take BoA (the new Bolivian airline that replaced LAB, which I always liked). Or any other carrier. Seriously, any of them will do. American made my shit list. Much more (and vivid) detail from K8 over at Gringo Tambo.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.520 2009-06-02T18:32:42Z 2009-06-02T23:02:49Z

Two days ago @arpiel posted a link to an interesting (and provocative) piece of independent journalism about USAID’s links to Bolivia’s anti-Evo opposition....

@arpiel posted a link to an interesting (and provocative) piece of independent journalism about USAID’s links to Bolivia’s anti-Evo opposition. ]]> their strategic goals. USAID is not the only state-sponsored/affiliated NGO agency operating in Bolivia. But the frequent criticisms of the USAID programs on decentralization & strengthening political parties (two programs USAID has significant investments in since the early 1990s) often come under somewhat unfair criticism. As the above link does, these are often meant to draw the (conspiratorial) link between USAID & “secessionist” groups, then jumping to imply that the US is plotting to overthrow Evo’s government. While I’ve no doubt that both the Bush & Obama administrations would be happy to see Evo go, this doesn’t automatically mean that the US is actively working to that goal. (Please note: I’m not denying that the US could be working towards such ends. Certainly, the history of US “intervention” in Latin America gives many reasons to consider that possibility. But the evidence unearthed so far doesn’t prove such a conspiracy actually exists.) What is missing in these discussions is a great deal of context. Yes, USAID has given funds to local NGOs & civil society organizations since 2005 (the year Evo was elected). And, yes, many of these groups either have links to (or themselves are openly) anti-Evo sympathizers. But three key questions should be asked in these reports, to fill in the gaps. Doing so would contribute to the evidence against USAID—depending on the answers. First, one should differentiate between pro-autonomy groups and “secessionist” groups. Not all groups seeking autonomy are secessionists. After all, MAS itself has endorsed autonomy for indigenous communities. There is too frequently a tendency to brand all those who favor some flavor of political devolution of power as secessionists, which is grossly unfair. It also weakens efforts at political decentralization, which only strengthens the ability of political parties and/or powerful individuals to justify the continued (or increasing) centralization of power. But this is a qualitative question. The next to are purely empirical questions, which only require a bit more research. Have USAID’s programs to support for decentralization and strengthening political parties & civil society changed since 2005? For example: Is more money being spent on such programs today than in the 1990s (when MAS was not in power, but when cocaleros & other MAS constituents actually benefited from USAID programs to strengthen municipal governments & indigenous autonomy)? Is such money being spent differently (favoring certain groups/regions more than others)? These kinds of questions are important. If, on the other hand USAID programs are little different from what they were in the 1990s—or if they have declined—this might suggest a very different kind of conclusion. How do USAID programs compare to similar programs from other (non-US) NGOs? For example: Are USAID decentralization programs on par w/ similar programs, such as Germany’s FES? Are USAID political party strengthening programs on par w/ similar programs, such as Sweden’s IDEA (which is hosting a seminar in Santa Cruz this weekend)? If the USAID programs are on par w/ such other programs, this would suggest that the US is pursuing a broad multilateral strategic goal shared by other OECD countries. One might no like such programs, of course, but then the guilt is shared by a broader range of countries. (Frankly, from my experience, no NGO has spent more on decentralization than Germany’s FES, which is an organ of the Social Democratic Party.) On other hand, if USAID efforts have increased more quickly than other similar programs or are targeted differently, this might support the “conspiratorial” claims. But what if USAID’s efforts are dwarfed by those of FES, GTZ, and other organizations? My point here is not to give a broad defense of USAID. I’m not entirely familiar w/ its programs (most of my work in Bolivia has been through contacts at FES). But I have met some of its decentralization researchers in the late 1990s (some of whom, btw, are now MAS supporters) & they seemed little different from the folks at FES-ILDIS (in fact, many later moved to FES-ILDIS). I only want to underscore that these kinds of claims against USAID are problematic. First, because they seem based on the implicit assumption that the US is interfering negatively in Bolivia and that any evidence linking US agencies w/ Bolivia’s opposition is proof of such negative interference. That kind of argumentation—devoid of any supporting context—crosses the line into tautology. Similarly, these kinds of arguments also tend to over-fixate on the US (ironically, they are US-centric!). As if the US where the only country involved in Bolivia (or other countries) or the only country that might have an agenda. It’s important to remember that the US gives less economic assistance (such as through USAID) than almost every other OECD country (when looking at per capita expenditures). The influence of an American NGO on Bolivian politics is minimal, when compared to the influence of German, Japanese, Spanish, and other OECD countries. Knowing where USAID stands in relation to the vast network of NGOs in Bolivia would help provide a clearer picture. Particularly in the highly globalized reality of international NGO proliferation. ----- CORRECTION: I accidentally implied that USAID is an NGO (non-governmental organization). It is not. Thanks to Ivan (see first comment below) for making sure that was clear. USAID is a federal organization (as I also mentioned, attached to the US State Department), not a non-governmental organization.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.519 2009-05-19T20:59:45Z 2009-06-19T14:14:38Z

A few of my students have asked to me to give another round of reading recommendations, particularly as they head of for the summer. So I’ve added a number of...

Pronto* Recommends book list. I hope you enjoy them!]]> ]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.518 2009-05-19T20:21:35Z 2009-06-19T14:14:37Z

This week’s Economist has a story suggesting that Colombia’s Uribe is “edging towards autocracy.” While I think the term “autocracy” is perhaps a bit exaggerated (just as it would be...

Economist has a story suggesting that Colombia’s Uribe is “edging towards autocracy.” While I think the term “autocracy” is perhaps a bit exaggerated (just as it would be to call Venezuela’s Chávez an “autocrat”), I agree w/ the overall sentiment.]]> incumbents have a significant advantage over any opponents. Particularly, presidents can travel freely using state funds, they can go on television at any moment to give a major address, they can make decrees, etc. In short, just by “doing their job” presidents can keep a high profile, while opponents must struggle to rise above the media din. An unpopular president can be unseated, of course. But it will likely require a significant effort & a highly popular candidate (ask John Kerry about why he coulnd’t topple an unpopular Dubya). This leads to the problem of the “permanent campaign” (a term developed for US presidential politics). If presidents can use their incumbency as an advantage in campaigns, they have incentives to pursue policy goals that will benefit them in the short term. These may very well be policies that are popular—or perhaps even necessary—for the country. But they may also be short-sighted policies that lead to long term problems. Finally, however, is the problem of institutionality. Indefinite reelection is only necessary if there is no strong political party that can carry over policies from one administration to the next. Or, rather, indefinite reelection provides incentives for incumbents to ensure that there is no rival w/in his/her party. This is particularly problematic if succession become necessary, since it also means no one is “prepared” to assume the office. But it also says something very bleak about the incumbent’s views about the rest of the country, his/her own party, and even his/her own close supporters. Is it really the case that the leader is “indispensible” for good governance? Are the rest of the citizens so utterly incompetent that only one person is qualified to govern? What does this say about the fundamental belief in “equality” of citizens? In many ways, allowing one consecutive reelection (as the US does) is a compromise solution. There’s no reason why presidents shouldn’t be allowed to serve only one term (though I think reelection after an intervening term is justifiable). Yes, it would make him/her a lame duck right away. But that may also help strengthen legislatures, which is where I believe political power should be located. I hope Uribe decides not to run for reelection. Regardless of whether one supports Uribe or not (there is much to like & dislike about his presidency), the vindication of Uribe’s policies should rest in the ability to find someone who supports them & vows to continue them. Likewise, the vindication of Colombia’s democracy (which Uribe claims to have been defending all these years) is to see that it can survive a transfer of power to Uribe’s opponents.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.517 2009-05-14T13:49:36Z 2009-06-18T14:34:32Z

Yesterday I posted some (very) early predictions for Bolivia’s December 2009 elections. I decided to make up a table showing some possible vote distributions based on some possible scenarios....

early predictions for Bolivia’s December 2009 elections. I decided to make up a table showing some possible vote distributions based on some possible scenarios.]]> The first table shows what the seat distribution would be like if the vote shares were identical to the 2005 vote shares. Based on the strength of MAS in the Andean highland departments, its seat share would expand significantly, giving it a solid majority (55.6%) of the Senate. But because I (and others) doubt that MAS will do as well as it did in 2005, I thought I’d run two other alternate scenarios. The first (Table 2) assumes that MAS lost 5% of the vote in each department, and that those votes transferred to the chief challenger (in 2005 that was Podemos). The second (Table 3) also assumes that MAS lost 5% of the vote in each department, but this time votes transferred to the second challenger (in 2005 that was UN). Under both scenarios MAS would “win” the election at large (or come very close) in the first round because of the sheer volume of votes in La Paz & Cochabamba (where MAS would still receive about 60% of the vote). But the seat shares change dramatically. Under the first scenario—which assumes that the opposition overcomes its coordination problems and one single party (or presidential candidate) gains all the benefits of a slight decline in MAS support—the highly disproportional system (D’Hondt using consecutive divisors w/ a district magnitude of 4) benefits the primary opposition. In this scenario, Podemos would walk away w/ a majority (52.8%) in the Senate. Under the second scenario—which assumes that the opposition doesn’t overcome its coordination problems but one other party (or presidential candidate) receives most of the benefit of a slight decline in MAS support—the electoral system would produce a deadlocked Senate (just like the 2005 election did). In this scenario, Podemos would actually be worse off than it was in 2005 (when it won one more seat than MAS, but not quite enough to have a majority in the chamber). But MAS would be in a pinch, coming up one seat short of an even 50% (and needing two to fully control the chamber). This would give disproportionate strength to the smaller parties (in 2005, MNR and UN). If they joined the primary opposition, they’d control the Senate. If they joined the government, MAS would hold a majority—but would have to negotiate away policy preferences, administrative posts, etc. to semi-loyal coalition partners. The key point is that under the new rules, MAS can only do well if it retains all of its electoral strength from 2005. If it loses only a small percentage, or if those loses are particularly concentrated, it could see the new electoral rules come back to haunt them. Notice that under both scenarios a decline in only 5% of the vote locks MAS out of Senate seats in Pando & Beni (much like in 2005). Depending on how votes disperse throughout the Media Luna, MAS could see itself shut out in 3-4 departments, making achieving a majority almost impossible. This leaves two fundamental questions heading into the 2009 election: How much support does MAS lose, and where? Is the opposition able to overcome its coordination problems? Finally, please note that these are actually conservative estimates. The real nightmare scenario (for MAS) is that even if it retains all its vote support the opposition overcomes all its coordination problems, producing a two-party contest. If we added the vote shares for Podemos, UN, and MNR, the breakdowns would be even more highly skewed (and give the opposition a two thirds supermajority!—even w/ MAS receiving 54% of the national vote!!).]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.516 2009-05-13T21:22:27Z 2009-06-18T14:34:32Z

I’m going to forgo a lot of the he/she speculation about a number of Bolivian topics swirling around the internets. But let me address those briefly, before turning to the...

I’m going to forgo a lot of the he/she speculation about a number of Bolivian topics swirling around the internets. But let me address those briefly, before turning to the upcoming December elections. six people an act of genocide). Also, because unless we’re also willing to see if other political actors (Quispe, Evo, Solares, etc.) share some responsibility for the escalating violence of those days, then any trial will be fundamentally flawed. Instead, I recommend a truth & reconciliation commission. Not perfect, of course (ask the Chileans or the South Africans), but it seems to work in ensuring long-term stability for the new regime (again, ask the Chileans or the South Africans). No, I don’t think Bolivia will qualify for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. I think we all know why. So. What about these pesky December 2009 elections? I promised MABB that I’d offer my own assessment of the upcoming elections, so here it is: Evo will likely win reelection, unless something truly unexpected happens. But he probably won’t have the same kind of legislative support he currently enjoys. Let me break that down quickly. Because of the newly approved constitution, Evo can run for reelection. And because Bolivia adopted a two-round runoff system for presidential elections, Evo gets a huge boost. He doesn’t need to worry about his legislative coalition in case he doesn’t win a simple majority (the old constitution stipulated that in case no candidate won 50%+1 of the vote, the legislature would select from among the top two candidates). Moreover, he can also win w/ only 40% of the vote, so long as he defeats the second place candidate by at least 10 points. This also makes him vulnerable, of course. If he wins less than 50% of the vote—and if some opposition candidate can get w/in 10 points of him—Evo could face a runoff election. In that unlikely event, a strong opposition candidate could upset Evo. But this is a very unlikely event. The real weakness for Evo comes from the new electoral constraints in place for the legislative election. The newly approved “transitional” electoral law doesn’t help Evo/MAS as much as many observers think. First, there’s the issue of the Senate. The original MAS proposal called for a unicameral legislature. That was abandoned. Instead, the Senate got bigger. Each department gets four seats, rather than three. And this time the seats are to be divided using proportional representation (very difficult w/ a district magnitude of 4, obviously). If we use the 2005 general election figures as proxy (please indulge me), here’s what the breakdown would be (using 2005 election data w/ the “natural divisors” method stipulated in the 2009 electoral law): Chuquisaca: 3 MAS; 1 Podemos La Paz: 3 MAS; 1 Podemos Cochabamba: 3 MAS; 1 Podemos Oruro: 3 MAS; 1 Podemos Potosí: 3 MAS; 1 Podemos Tarija: 2 Podemos; 2 MAS Santa Cruz: 2 Podemos; 2 MAS Beni: 2 Podemos; 1 MNR; 1 MAS Pando: 3 Podemos; 1 UN Currently, MAS holds 12 of 27 seats in the Senate (Podemos holds 13, UN & MNR each holds 1). The new Senate will have 36 seats. My estimates (based on 2005 election figures) would give MAS about 20 seats. That is much better than it did in 2005 (55% is better than 44%), which looks like a huge advantage for MAS. But don’t forget that w/ a district magnitude of 4 using the D’Hondt “natural divisors” method heavily rewards the largest parties. This helps MAS, if it remains the largest (or at least second largest) party in each department. But if it has slipped (as it clearly has) in places like the Media Luna, even by a little, that balance can alter tremendously. (Notice that a 2009 scenario gives MNR/UN smaller seat shares than they won under 2005 rules.) The lower house Chamber of Deputies hasn’t changed much, despite the fanfare surrounding the new “reserved” indigenous seats. Four of those are in the Media Luna. These will no dout be won by indigenous representatives of CIDOB. Recently, that organization broke w/ MAS—though it could come back to the fold. Interestingly, there are no reserved indigenous seats in Chuquisaca or Potosí, two departments that would likely elect pro-MAS representatives. The rest will come from departments like La Paz, Oruro, and Cochabamba, were rural districts were expected to elect pro-MAS representatives. Also, because the reserved indigenous seats are geographically bound, this poses an interesting problem for MAS. First, because these seats are not for Aymara or Quechua communities, but for smaller, more marginal groups (such as Afro-Bolivians in La Paz). These groups may have an incentive to select representatives who may challenge MAS on pet issues. At the same time, because these seats are geographically based, they will mean carving up or otherwise altering existing district boundaries. And here I expect to see an interesting political conflict. It’s possible that in the end, cities (which have grown in population) may gain representation, reducing the number of rural districts to create the “reserved” indigenous districts. That may help MAS in El Alto/La Paz. But it will hurt MAS in the Media Luna. The end result is that MAS will likely win the same share of legislative seats as it currently holds. But. Here’s the rub: The introduction of the two-round runoff may encourage more opposition parties to challenge Evo. Because the Senate and half the Chamber of Deputies are calculated based on the presidential vote, the introduction of a strong third candidate could hurt Evo—assuming it peels votes away from him and his primary opponent. The possibility of a runoff decided by voters, rather than legislators, may be enough of an incentive to push lower-tiered parties/candidates to try to place second, in hopes of later rallying the opposition to defeat Evo. Imagine what Doria Medina could’ve accomplished in a two-round runoff (at the very least, I think his UN might have won more votes as a credible option). Even if that gambit fails (which I think it would), it might peel away enough votes from MAS to lower their seat totals—particularly in the Senate. The introduction of the two-round runoff has made Bolivia truly a presidential system (and no longer a “parliamentarized presidential” system). Throughout Latin America, that has historically produced presidents w/ low legislative support, which leads to crisis, gridlock, or “extra-constitutional” situations (e.g. Fujimori). Let’s see what happens in the next few months.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.515 2009-05-13T20:28:00Z 2009-06-18T14:34:31Z

We recently took our second trip to the Baltimore Zoo (excuse me, the Maryland Zoo in Baltimore). It was part of our Mother’s Day outing, which began w/ our second...

Baltimore Zoo (excuse me, the Maryland Zoo in Baltimore). It was part of our Mother’s Day outing, which began w/ our second visit to Miss Shirley’s Café. We highly recommend both. ]]> Keswick (the neighborhood around JHU’s Homewood Campus). We went to Miss Shirley’s on Election Tuesday, to celebrate our having voted. Both times the food was excellent. It’s a little on the pricey side, but it’s all top-notch, organic and/or local ingredients. For those who know Kalamazoo, it’s a lot like Food Dance. The highlight, of course, was the Baltimore Zoo. It’s the nation’s third oldest (opened in 1876) and is already one of my favorites. It’s not as big as some other zoos I’ve been to. But it’s clearly designed for kids (in a good way). It reminds me a lot of the Lincoln Park Zoo. Both are very well designed (I’ll give the Lincoln Park Zoo an edge in the “aesthetics” department), though Baltimore’s is bigger. Also, it helps that the Baltimore zoo is not in an “urban” environment, but rather nestled inside a large city green space: Druid Hill Park. Javi clearly enjoyed the outing. He’s now old enough to really appreciate animals in a more nuanced way. He rushed to pet the goats (the zoo has a farm animal petting area). He laughed at the ducks playing in the agua. He got a kick out of the pinguins (he loves Pingu). What’s great about the Baltimore Zoo is also how there’s just a lot of great natural scenery. It’s not just animals in cages or constructed habitats. I also really like the entire “Children’s Zoo” area devoted to the Chesapeake Bay & local wildlife (it resembles more a nature trail than an “exhibit”). Also, there are rides—but these are in a separate location away from the animals (which is good). We’re gonna try to go back for the Brew at the Zoo event in two weeks. Anyone wanna come see us?]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.514 2009-05-08T17:22:28Z 2009-06-18T14:34:31Z

This fall I used Franklin Foer’s How Soccer Explains the World again in my introduction to comparative politics course. Again, I was relatively happy w/ how that went, as we...

How Soccer Explains the World again in my introduction to comparative politics course. Again, I was relatively happy w/ how that went, as we tried to tie Foer’s observations back to the material we covered earlier in the semester. I was particularly happy w/ the final exam questions (all essay, all open-ended). Here they are, for your amusement:]]> Long Essay (pick one) 1. Foer suggests that soccer gives a window into the formation, celebration, and maintenance of national myths. Pick one of his chapters as a focus, and connect his discussion to Hobsbawm’s description of how nations are “constructed.” 2. Both Red Star Belgrade and Barcelona FC were teams that had devoted fans opposed to their country’s non-democratic regimes (communist Yugoslavia and Franco’s Spain). In these ways, they were “most similar” cases. But while Red Star Belgrade’s fans became violently xenophobic, Barcelona’s fans did not. Why do you think that is? Short Essay (pick two) 1. Does globalization help perpetuate or undermine the sectarian conflict between Glasgow Rangers and Celtic? 2. Why does Foer believe soccer is “Islam’s hope”? Do you think he’s right? 3. Foer takes a Tocquevillian (or “political culture”) perspective on the relationship between soccer and politics. How would Marx interpret soccer’s relationship to politics? ]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.513 2009-04-28T13:40:49Z 2009-06-04T14:33:23Z

We’re experiencing something of a bizarre heat wave, coming on the heels of a cold snap. So we’ve gone from highs of low 50s to mid 90s in only a...

We’re experiencing something of a bizarre heat wave, coming on the heels of a cold snap. So we’ve gone from highs of low 50s to mid 90s in only a few days (yet, ironically, some of my students still believe global warming is an evil conspiracy/hoax). Sadly, the air conditioning in our building doesn’t kick on until May 15 (?!—but I’m trying to push them to do it sooner) even as our elevator’s been broken for most of the past month or two. Frustrating. JHU library. Meanwhile, my fall syllabi are nearly finished (and I’ll post them soon). I’m adjuncting at Ole Miss (K8 has the tenure track). I’m teaching a Latin American politics course. I’ve taught it before, so I’m not worried. And I’ve actually decided to streamline it significantly. We’re reading only two books: John Peeler’s Building Democracy in Latin America and the Castañeda/Morales Leftovers: Tales of the Two Latin American Lefts. I’m also assigning a number of journal articles. The other course is a first-year seminar, taught through the English department. My two sections are titled “On the Road: Travel as a Method of Inquiry.” That syllabus still needs a bit of work (setting up the assignments). But I’m pleased w/ the books: Patrick Symmes’ Chasing Che, Emma Larkin’s Finding George Orwell in Burma, Tim Mackintosh-Smith’s Travels with a Tangerine, and Eddy Harris’s Mississippi Solo. The whole purpose of the course is to learn about writing, critical thinking, and research at the college level, but to approach it from the perspective of travel. I want students to think about other ways of “doing” research, beyond just using the library. Since these are only first-semester freshmen, it’s a great opportunity to have them think about future majors, areas of study, study abroad (they’ll write a paper on an Ole Miss study abroad program), etc. I’m very excited to tackle this new course. If you have any suggestions for other things (I’m probably going to use some Anthony Bourdain, as well some Dhani Jones and Art Attack), please let me know. Not much else is new in Baltimore. Javi has a few more words (“hi-hi” & “thank you”) and he can now brush his teeth by himself. K8 still commutes to Delaware for another month. And we’ve decided to buy Madden NFL 09 so we can have a two-player game for our Xbox (thanks, again, John & Kristine!). Also, I want to catch at least one Orioles home game before we move.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.512 2009-04-25T14:28:32Z 2009-06-04T14:33:22Z

So apparently my son is a pirate. Javi was diagnosed yesterday w/ amblyopia. So far, he doesn’t seem to mind wearing his eye patch. We find out in about two...

So apparently my son is a pirate. Javi was diagnosed yesterday w/ amblyopia. So far, he doesn’t seem to mind wearing his eye patch. We find out in about two weeks if he’ll need glasses (my cousin’s daughter wears glasses for the same reason). It’s certainly not the worst thing that could befall a toddler. And all things considered, he’s doing amazingly well.]]> says; he understands quite a bit more) as he nears 16 months:

1. agua: (Spanish for “water”) which seems to cover every drinkable liquid, but also water in bathtubs, rain, on television, and pictures of lakes
2. la-la-la: the word for pig (I blame the book Moo Baa La La La; btw, this word is also specifically used for that book)
3. car(s): this covers a host of vehicles/machines (and toys that look like them), as well as the noise of vehicles/machines as heard outside the apartment
4. bus: this specifically covers schoolbuses (though I’ve noticed him using it for public transportation & yellow taxis as well)
5. guys: these are his various toys, specifically his Playmobil figures
6. down: obviously, for when he wants to get down
7. cat/s: his word for cats (both alive & in pictures)
8. dog: his word for dogs (both alive & in pictures)
9. oh-oh: pretty self explanatory
10. all done: when he’s done eating (followed swiftly w/ dropping food onto the floor)
11. bye-bye: always done w/ a waving motion, but it also applies to putting things away and/or out of sight
12. cheese: another self-explanatory
13. ¿que?: (Spanish for “what?”) used to ask question when pointing to things
14. hot?: now a perpetual question before eating; food must be tested and/or blowed upon
15. mumum: his word for K8
16. dada: his word for me (no matter how hard I try to get him to use “papi”

He’s obviously very clever. He can use a spoon. He expects to wash his hands/face after eating. He puts his chair away (and draws it out when he wants to eat). He can get in/out of the bathtub on his own (scary!), as well as up/down couches (scary!). We’ve had to move a couch because he would in 15 seconds go from floor to couch to top of the radiator (so he could press up on the window to look at his beloved cars that pass along the road below our 5th floor apartment). So that’s a pretty good update on Javi’s development. We head to DC for a weekend w/ extended family this afternoon. He’ll be the center of attention of course.]]> tag:www.mcentellas.com,2009://1.511 2009-04-21T18:37:47Z 2009-05-24T02:43:42Z

Driving around running errands today, I overheard a midday discussion on the local NPR station (Baltimore’s WYPR 88.1) about same-sex marriage laws. It reminded me of a column I wrote...

WYPR 88.1) about same-sex marriage laws. It reminded me of a column I wrote for the WMU college paper about five years ago. I dug it up. I still believe in every word of it, despite more than two years into my own marriage. I’m reposting it here, unedited, in its entirety. Enjoy.]]> ADDENDUM: If you’re not able to make an intelligent comment, I’m not going to post it. Call it censorship if you like, but this is my personal internet space. Comparing homosexuality to beastiality is not an intelligent comment. I suppose someone could want to marry his/her pet goat. But marriage also requires mutual consent. Homosexuals can consent to marry each other, pet goats cannot. But, quite frankly, I don’t see why it’s anyone’s business—let alone the government’s—to tell me (or anyone else) what I can & can’t do in my own home, w/ other consenting adults. If you honestly believe that the government should enforce religious morality, I suggest you move to Saudi Arabia, Iran, or pre-2001 Afghanistan.]]>